NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview
By Avi Creditor, InsideHoops.com / Mar. 30, 2005
COLLEGE BASKETBALL FINAL FOUR PREVIEW
No. 1 North Carolina (31-4) vs. No. 5 Michigan State (26-6)
North Carolina’s road to St. Louis:
Def. No. 16 Oakland 96-68
Def. No. 9 Iowa State 92-65
Def. No. 5 Villanova 67-66
Def. No. 6 Wisconsin 88-82
Michigan State’s road to St. Louis
Def. No. 12 Old Dominion 89-81
Def. No. 13 Vermont 72-61
Def. No. 1 Duke 78-68
Def. No. 2 Kentucky 94-88 (2OT)
North Carolina is right on par with its preseason
expectations. Roy Williams’ squad features at least four
future first-round NBA picks, but the players have not been
selfish, something that has hindered this team’s chances in
the past. They feature five players who average double-
figures in scoring, led by the beast in the middle, Sean
May. May has been the most consistent player for this team.
He’s averaged a double-double on the season (17.1 points,
10.9 rebounds), has scored 21.5 points a game in the
tournament, and is virtually impossible to stop. This is one
area where North Carolina has a huge advantage over Michigan
State. While Paul Davis is a very good low-post player, he
will need tons of help on defense to prevent May from taking
over the game, which he has done so many times this year. If
May is double-teamed, he can just kick it out to any one of
his various weapons for the long-range shot. A low-post
presence of May’s caliber is invaluable in this tournament.
The way May has led his team, whether it be flushing down a
monster jam or showing leadership from the sidelines, don’t
be surprised to see him holding the Most Outstanding Player
trophy at the end of the championship game.
Carolina has those “other guys” too. Rashad McCants,
the best—not top, though—scorer on the team, averages 16
points a game, and has shown maturity by becoming a team
player and leaving his attitude issues in the past. Raymond
Felton is one of the top point guards in the country (6.9
assists per game), and holds the offense together. We all
saw what happened when Felton was suspended for the season
opener (77-66 loss to Santa Clara), and when he fouled out
late against Villanova, right before the Wildcats almost
came back from a 10-point deficit to upset the Tar Heels.
Felton must stay on the court for Carolina’s game to flow.
Senior Jawad Williams has been steady all year (13 points
per game), and Jackie Manuel is a defensive monster.
The crazy thing about Carolina is that the best
prospect out of the bunch, and perhaps most talented player
right now, comes off the bench. Supersub and ACC Freshman of
the Year Marvin Williams has played much more like an
experienced veteran rather than a nervous frosh making his
first tourney appearance. He’s averaging 15.5 points a game
in just 23.5 minutes of action over the course of the
tournament, including two 20-point efforts in the first two
rounds.
If these numbers don’t scare you, the UNC fast break
will. This team can score from the outside, they can score
from the inside, and they bring it for a full 40 minutes.
This is Roy Williams’ best chance to nab that ever-elusive
first national championship and bring Carolina back to
college basketball prominence.
For those that think Michigan State has zero chance
in this game, ask Coach K and Tubby Smith why they’re
watching the Final Four on television. The Spartans bring a
very balanced attack, and they have perhaps the most
athletic personnel in the country. Not to mention Tom Izzo
is becoming a coaching legend, having brought his Spartans
to the Final Four for the fourth time in the last seven
years.
The Spartans have 10 players who average over nine
minutes a game, so coach Izzo is not faced with a depth
problem whatsoever. Maurice Ager (13.8 points per game),
Alan Anderson (13.7), Paul Davis (12.2), Shannon Brown
(10.8), and Kelvin Torbert (9.5) are all capable of putting
up huge offensive numbers on a constant basis, but playing
under the team philosophy, it’s usually a different Spartan
leading the way each night. In the first game against Old
Dominion, the five stars each scored between 13 and 15
points apiece. However, in the win over Duke, Davis went for
20 points, and in the win over Kentucky in the regional
final, Brown went for 24 and Ager added 21. The fact that
Michigan State features so many options on offense could
give Carolina problems on the defensive end. The high-flying
trio of Ager, Brown, and Torbert is another wildcard for the
Spartan offense. The three of them play so well above the
rim, and if the game is played at the run-and-gun pace that
Carolina likes, the Spartans have the athletes to
counterpunch.
The key for Michigan State is the play they get from
the point guard position. Freshman Drew Neitzel was thrust
into the starting lineup to replace senior Chris Hill, and
has performed well, averaging 3.3 assists a game, and
becoming a catalyst for the offense with his dribble drives
and his court vision. Chris Hill is very good in terms of
not turning the ball over, as he features a three-to-one
assist to turnover ratio. It’s important to have an
experienced player like Hill, who won’t get rattled,
handling the ball in key situations. Hill’s scoring punch
has taken a hit, as he’s struggled shooting the ball in the
tournament so far, but as long as he and Neitzel can run the
offense and get the ball to the five scorers, the Spartans
will be OK.
Entering the tournament, Michigan State, as a team,
was tied for first in free-throw percentage in the country
(79.1%), and was ninth in field-goal percentage (49.9%).
However, North Carolina was fourth in field-goal percentage
at 50.4 percent, and first in scoring offense (89.3 points
per game), so the Spartans will have to bring their
defensive A game, in addition to their steady offense, to
St. Louis if they expect to upset the top-seeded Tar Heels.
Prediction: North Carolina is just too talented at every
position to lose this game. Going down the line, Michigan
State has very good players at each position, but Carolina’s
are just better. Then again, Wisconsin, a team that Michigan
State split the season series with, did just give Carolina a
run for its money, and with the way this tournament has
worked itself out, it wouldn’t be a shock to see another
underdog score a remarkable upset. That being said, it won’t
be a blowout, but Roy Williams will get his shot at the
title, and UNC will move on.
No. 1 Illinois (36-1) vs. No. 4 Louisville (33-4)
Illinois’ road to St. Louis
Def. No. 16 Farleigh Dickinson 67-55
Def. No. 9 Nevada 71-59
Def. No. 12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 77-63
Def. No. 3 Arizona 90-89 (OT)
Louisville’s road to St. Louis
Def. No. 13 Louisiana-Lafayette 68-62
Def. No. 5 Georgia Tech 76-54
Def. No. 1 Washington 93-79
Def. No. 7 West Virginia 93-85 (OT)
Both of these teams are coming off of exhilarating,
and borderline miraculous, regional final comebacks.
Illinois was down 15 to Arizona with four minutes remaining,
and fought back behind the play of Deron Williams and Luther
Head to pull off the overtime win. Louisville was down by 20
to West Virginia—who couldn’t seem to miss a shot—but the
Cardinals found the inner strength to chip away and chip
away some more to win it in overtime. Both teams played a
rough first game, looked dominant for the next two, and then
fought for their lives to move on to the Final Four. These
two teams mirror each other on a number of levels, and
should put on quite the display on Saturday night.
This match-up is intriguing, because both teams also
get knocked for the same reason—lack of a low post presence.
If you consider the inside games equal and look at the
guards, you’d be hard pressed to find a trio better than
what Illinois brings to the table. While Louisville’s
Francisco Garcia, Taquan Dean, and Larry O’Bannon are very
good, Illinois’ Williams, Dee Brown, and Head are fantastic,
and this is why the edge in this game goes to Illinois.
The Illini are pretty deep, with eight players
averaging over 11 minutes a game. Almost all of the scoring,
though, comes from the starting five. Williams, Head, and
Brown, the Big Ten Player of the Year, are the finest trio
of guards you will find, and have been consistently great
all year long. They each bring intensity, quickness, and a
great three-point shot to the game, but most importantly,
they each show a ton of poise and composure. Williams leads
the team in assists with 6.7 a game, and Head leads the team
in scoring, averaging 15.7 points a game. Brown does a
little of both, scoring 13.5 points a game and dishing out
4.5 assists per game. Forward Roger Powell Jr. chips in with
11.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per contest and James
Augustine, who has garnered a ton of attention as the
primary reason why Illinois can’t win (because they’ve lost
oh so frequently this year), puts up 10.4 points and grabs
7.6 rebounds a game. The Illini’s top subs are senior big
men Jack Ingram and Nick Smith, and sophomore guard Rich
McBride. Ingram, in particular, has played very solidly in
the tournament, and is an asset that Illini will use for
depth in the frontcourt.
Illinois is coached by Bruce Weber, who has somehow
managed to maintain concentration and focus after the tragic
loss of his mother earlier in the winter. He is a true
winner and is building quite the reputation after splashing
onto the national scene with mid-major Southern Illinois.
What a story it would be for Weber to lead the Illini to its
first-ever national championship after everything he’s gone
through this year.
Louisville and coach Rick Pitino will do everything
in their power to make sure that this does not happen,
though. Louisville can win in any number of ways. As we’ve
seen throughout the tournament, their defense is chameleon-
like in that it can change based on the offense it’s up
against to stifle their opponent’s attack. At halftime of
the regional final against West Virginia, Pitino scrapped
the original game plan and made the adjustments necessary
for his talented squad to win. Coaching is the one area
where Louisville has the advantage. Nothing against Weber,
but Pitino is a mastermind.
Louisville has the right players out on the court
executing his game plan to get the job done. Like Illinois,
Louisville has eight players averaging double figures in
minutes, and the starting five does about all of the damage.
Garcia is an amazing talent who will probably jump to the
pros after the tournament is over. He scores 16 points a
game, and is extremely versatile. He’d better stay out of
foul trouble, though, because without him, Louisville cannot
win this game. Garcia has two sharp-shooting compliments in
Dean (14.5 points per game) and O’Bannon (15.2). This trio
is lethal shooting the three, and should form an interesting
match-up against the Illini’s trio of guards.
On the inside doing the dirty work for the Cardinals
are freshman Juan Palacios, and seniors Ellis Myles and Otis
George. Myles is Louisville’s top rebounder (9.3 per game),
and Palacios has been a pleasant surprise (10 points per
game, 6.6 rebounds) in his first year. He’s very good right
now, and will be a stud in the future for the Cardinals.
Louisville is not your typical four-seed—especially
considering that they are ranked No. 4 in the COUNTRY right
now—and have played the “motivation through disrespect” card
all tournament long. This is an intangible factor that you
can be sure Pitino has been using for motivation since
Selection Sunday. Illinois won’t underestimate Louisville,
but if Pitino is even more of a motivator than we know, the
scales could tip in Louisville’s favor.
Prediction: While Louisville is extremely hot right now and
is getting great play from Garcia, Dean, and O’Bannon,
Illinois has been the top team all year, and looks primed to
march on to the national championship game. This game should
be thrilling to watch (which tourney game over the last two
weeks hasn’t been?), and if you love the three-point shot,
this is your type of game. Like the other Final Four match-
up, this should be a tight contest with the No. 1 seed
moving on to the finals.
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