Looking at some top teams
By Mike Mears, InsideHoops.com / Jan.8, 2005
The InsideHoops.com preseason rankings had Wake Forest,
Kansas, Georgia Tech and Illinois as our Final Four
favorites. Two months into the season gives us a slight
adjustment to both the order and the lineup; Illinois, North
Carolina, Wake Forest and Kansas are the new favorites to
meet in St. Louis. (Check back again in March for my “real”
picks. I’m just practicing for now.)
Unlike dominant teams in recent years such as UConn in 2004,
Maryland in 2002 and Duke in 2001, none of these teams
entered this season at such a level. The Illini and Tar
Heels have seemingly ascended to that level as the season
has progressed thus far, but everyone had major question
marks. Let's take a look at how they've addressed those in
the season's first half:
1. Illinois
The question: Inside play. There was no doubting the Illini
guards, and Dee Brown, Deron Williams and Luther Head have
even exceeded expectations. But with Roger Powell playing
power forward at 6'6", and questions about James Augustine's
aggressiveness plus a lack of beef on the bench, even those
preseason pundits rating Illinois at No. 1 or No. 2 made
note of the frontcourt's weaknesses. UNC's Sean May,
Providence's Ryan Gomes, Missouri’s Arthur Johnson,
Wisconsin's Mike Wilkinson, Ohio State’s Terrance Dials,
and Duke’s Shelden Williams all had monster games against
them last year.
The answer: Powell has expanded his game, emerging as a
major scoring threat in the post and off the dribble. He has
improved defensively to the point where he has often guarded
the opponent's top big man, regardless of height. Augustine
has produced at the same rate as last season, and still
needs to bring more aggressiveness more often. 7'2" Nick
Smith and 6'11" Jack Ingram don't produce much
statistically, but while Smith has struggled, Ingram has
brought physicality and an outside shooting touch off the
bench.
6'8" combo forward Brian Randle, expected to be a defensive
stopper, broke his hand in November and may not return this
year. To date, he has not been missed but may be against an
athletic four like UNC’s Juwad Williams who can score from
the perimeter.
More important than what the Illini bigs have done is what
opposing bigs have done. Namely, very little. Gonzaga’s
Ronny Turiaf, Georgetown’s Brandon Bowman, Cincinnati’s Eric
Hicks/Jason Maxiell combo, and Ohio State’s Terrance Dials
are all standout big men that have been shut down by
Illinois in blowout losses. Only Wake’s Eric Williams and
Missouri’s Linas Kleiza have been able to generate offense.
Problem solved? For the most part. But behind Kleiza’s 25
points, Mizzou has been the only team to give Illinois a
game this year. Someone will have to get a similarly
outstanding effort from a big man and harass the Illini with
tough perimeter defense to beat them, as Mizzou did in the
second half of the Braggin’ Rights game in St. Louis.
2. North Carolina
The question: Consistency, chemistry and attitude. We all
knew about the potentially overwhelming talent level in
Chapel Hill. Raymond Felton is one of the nation’s best
playmakers, Rashad McCants can score like none other, Sean
May is a horse inside and Jawad Williams is a superb inside-
out threat.
But as a team, this group had left something to be desired
thus far. Despite having everyone return, they were yet to
fully gel as a unit and yet to give a consistent defensive
effort. McCants, the most talented player in the country,
also had been one of the biggest headcases.
The answer: Though they lost a 77-66 shocker to Santa Clara
without Felton to open the year, the Heels have rebounded to
appear as dominant as a team with such talent should be.
Everyone appears to have bought in to Roy Williams’
breakneck speed system built on unselfishness. McCants is
scoring nearly four less points per game this season, and
doesn’t appear to care.
By buying in to the concept of team, the talents of
everyone have been maximized. The nation’s best playmaker
on the break, Felton has an embarrassment of riches to find
in transition. McCants has become even more efficient than
ever before. Jawad Williams is leading the team in scoring,
hitting an absurd 65% of his shots. Sean May has run the
floor better than ever. 6’9” freshman phenom Marvin
Williams brings superb rebounding and elite athleticism off
the bench, and shows the makings of a yet another dominant
scorer.
Problem solved? I’m going to go out on a limb with an
emphatic “yes.” The prospect of a brutal ACC schedule means
McCants could bring the Heels down with another pouting
session, but it says here that he has matured beyond that.
And so has his team. UNC has found the maturity and killer
instinct it has lacked in recent years.
3. Wake Forest
The question: Defense, defense, and more defense. Unlike
Illinois, there was no questioning any part of Wake’s
roster. Their backcourt is almost as good as the Illini’s
and their frontcourt appeared much bigger, deeper, and more
talented entering the year. Unlike with UNC, there wasn’t
much questioning of Wake’s heart, led by pint-sized warriors
Chris Paul and Justin Gray. But having given up 80 points
per game in 2003-2004, Insidehoops.com’s preseason No. 1
desperately needed to get more defensive stops to win it all.
The answer: If you saw the Deacons at Illinois, you’re
probably asking yourself, “What answer?” The Illini racked
up 91 points, and could have easily scored over 100 if they
hadn’t built a 32-point lead with 5:00 to play. But after
passing their No. 1 ranking to the Illini, Wake has quietly
improved while flying under the radar.
Though his numbers aren’t anywhere near what they were at
two years ago, Vytas Danelius- out for much of last year-
being on the court has allowed Wake to use 6’9” pogo stick
Jamaal Levy at small forward, giving Wake a longer, more
athletic look on defense. Guard Taron Downey, wing Trent
Strickland and 6’9” banger Chris Ellis- used sparingly in
2003-2004- give the Deacons a tough bench. Also of help has
been Eric Williams cutting down on fouls. In the same
amount of playing time, Williams is averaging nearly one
less foul a game.
Wake gave up 80 points per game and 45% field goal shooting
last year. Through 13 games, those numbers are down to 72
points per game and 42% shooting this year.
Problem solved? Not yet. Though Wake has looked more
aggressive and willing to scrap in the last month,
especially in putting Virginia away on the road to open ACC
play, Illinois and Texas are the only top-notch scoring
units Wake has faced thus far, and they gave up an average
of 89.5 points to them. Let’s see what they do against a
conference schedule full of powerhouse offenses. If they
survive the ACC with five or less losses and give up 75 ppg
or less, they’ll be in great shape come March.
4. Kansas
The question: Though they lean on the excellent,
experienced senior trio of Aaron Miles, Keith Langford and
Wayne Simien, the Jayhawks saw Jeff Graves graduate and
David Padgett transfer to Louisville. This left them
freshmen and a walk-on as their only sort of depth.
The answer: Though undefeated, Kansas has struggled to find
their groove. So far they’ve trailed in the second half, at
home, to Vermont, Pacific, South Carolina and Texas A&M.
With so many unproven players surrounding the senior trio,
however, perhaps those early-season dogfights- and their
relatively soft preseason schedule- will bode well in the
long run. Russell Robinson has been an offensive spark off
the bench behind Miles and Langford. Alex Galindo has come
along nicely, knocking down the game-winner against A&M.
However, Wayne Simien’s broken thumb, which may keep him out
until February, has put the glaring spotlight on the trio of
freshman bigs: Darnell Jackson, C.J. Giles, and Sasha Kaun,
and they have not embraced it thus far; the three are
averaging 8 points and 8 boards so far. Combined. Walk-on
forward Christian Moody has done a solid job on the boards,
averaging 5.2 in 22 minutes, and does dirty work, but
produces little else.
Problem solved? The jury is out. The absence of Simien
will not sink them, but it would certainly be nice for them
if one of the freshman bigs would have stepped up. However,
Simien is good enough that they can might be able to get by
with minimal statistical contributions. But he needs to be
nothing less than superb when he returns for this team to
reach their potential, or even to hold off Oklahoma State in
the Big XII.
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